Why the Spurs have exceeded expectations so far this season

01/03/2025 02:40 PM

Veterans leadership and improvement from the young core are just a few reasons why the Spurs are better than expected.

Coming into the 2024-25 season, there was a sense of cautious optimism among Spurs fans. No one wanted to jump the gun and expect too much improvement from the 2023-24 season, and it wouldn't surprise me if more people bet the under than over on Las Vegas' projected win total of 35.5 for the team prior to the season, but notable improvement was still expected.

Fast forward a few months, and they are kicking off the 2025 portion of the season having exceeded even Vegas' expectations so far with a 17-16 record (after being just 5-28 at this same point last season) and sitting in the thick of the playoff race despite being in the gauntlet that is the Western Conference. Some of that can be attributed to the obvious, like avoiding 18-game losing streaks, having a home-heavy schedule, and no experimentation, but there's more to it than the team simply being a year older and wiser, so let's a take a look at a few of the main reasons why the Spurs are exceeding expectations so far.

Incoming veterans have exceeded expectations

No one was really sure what the Spurs would do in the offseason, but most probably assumed they would either run it back or make upgrades to the fringes of the roster. As a result, it was somewhat surprising when they brought in two accomplished veterans who would definitely be in the rotation: Chris Paul (via free agency) and Harrison Barnes (via trade). But even then, there were some doubts as to how much they would actually lift the Spurs up. Afterall, Paul is 39 years old and mostly wallowed on the Warriors' bench last season, and Kings fans would have you believe Barnes' inability to play defense more than offset any positives he brought on offense.

As it turns out, both have helped more than anyone expected. The CP3 Effect — a.k.a. Paul's ability to come in and help raise his new team's record — is in full swing as he provides leadership both on and off the court while bringing a steadying presence who doesn't turn the ball over, directs players to the right spot, and always makes the right play (well, almost). He has also found the right balance between when to facilitate and when to aggressively look for his own shot, and he has been a good mentor to the Spurs' presumed point guard-of-the-future in rookie Stephon Castle.

As for Barnes, he has also been exactly the veteran presence the Spurs needed, providing much needed outside shooting, discipline, and a calming demeanor on the floor. He also hasn't been the defensive sieve we were told he was (that was likely more a result of the Kings' roster flaws than anything). The Spurs didn't make any big, splashy moves in the offseason, but they may have quietly made some of the best ones, and it's paying off without costing them anything in the future.

Jeremy Sochan's third-year leap

It's safe to say that Sochan did not have an ideal sophomore season. He was unfairly blamed for the failed "point guard experiment" before Gregg Popovich finally went to Tre Jones around this time last season, and it seemed to shake his confidence the rest of the way. This season has been different. He has returned to his natural position at forward (although for some reason, the NBA still has him listed as a guard in All-Star voting), and he looks much more comfortable and confident.

He's averaging career-highs in points, field goal percentage and rebounds, and while last season showed he isn't a natural point guard, the experience he gained from it has improved his handle, court awareness and passing (which was likely the goal all along). He has also benefited from Victor Wembanyama shooting more threes (more on that below), making them more compatible together since the driving lanes are now open for Sochan to cut and receive the ball down low, where he is an efficient scorer. And of course, he remains one of the league's premiere defenders. This has been much closer to the Sochan we hoped to see last season, now he just needs to keep working on that three-point shot.

Victor Wembanyama is becoming a scorer

Everyone expected Wemby to improve in his second season, but perhaps no one expected this type of leap. While it's zero surprise that he has added more dimension to his offensive game now that teams had a scouting report on him, shooting 9.4 threes per game (on pace to lead the franchise in a single season by a country mile) probably wasn't on anyone's bingo card. Even so, he's hitting them at a solid 35.5 percent rate for the season, but more importantly 39.5 percent since November 9.

As previously mentioned, not only does his three-point shooting make him more compatible with players such as Sochan, but it also makes him harder to guard in general. In their first nine games, before the threes started falling, defenses were doubling Wemby down low, stripping the ball when he tried to dribble, or just laying back when he shot from outside. Now, they have to respect him all over the court, and when they do close out on his threes, he can either drive it himself or find the open man as defenders close in.

With the ever-growing sample size, we're approaching a point where it's safe to say that Wemby isn't just a shooter; he's a scorer. That in turn takes the Spurs' offense to another level and opens things up for everyone else. Combined with their improved defense, the Spurs are no longer a team that suffers multiple scoring droughts per game and is incapable of holding onto leads. There's no longer a fear that every game will collapse at any given minute, making the Spurs much more competitive and enjoyable to watch, and that's everything and more that we could have asked for by this point of the season.