Steph Curry's rotation change makes a difference but inept closing offense burns the Warriors

Yesterday at 03:24 AM

Dubs lose their fifth game in a row.

Virtually nothing happens of note in terms of substitution patterns and rotation decisions at the mid-seven-minute mark of first quarters for most teams, including the Golden State Warriors. Barring injuries or foul trouble, teams usually stick with their starting lineup till around the six minute mark and beyond, where subs begin to occur.

So it was a surprise to see that Steve Kerr — with no one in foul trouble and no one seemingly injured, at least to the naked eye — made a substitution at the 7:24 mark of the first quarter against the Denver Nuggets. Even more surprising: it was Steph Curry who was being subbed out.

For most of the season, Curry has been on a consistent pattern of playing the first eight minutes of first and third quarters, before coming back at around the seven-minute mark of the second and fourth quarters (give or take). That pattern slots Curry's minutes at around 30 to 32 minutes total for a single game, which is what Kerr has stated as what he would want Curry to be at in order to keep his 36-year-old legs fresh and ready.

The mid-seven-minute sub was surprising, to say the least. But as the game unfolded, it was on the brink of becoming a highly reasonable decision given the Warriors' struggles, the Nuggets' weaknesses, and the fact that Kerr had to try something new after losing four straight games. With Draymond Green unavailable due to an ailing left calf, Curry also had to be in during crucial stretches with the Warriors deprived of another ball handler, decision maker, and passer — arguably their best one on the team.

First, the Warriors' struggles, particularly on offense: without Curry, the Warriors have been offensively inept. Heading into the game against the Nuggets, the Warriors were scoring a measly 104.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time without Curry, per Cleaning The Glass — equivalent to 29th in the NBA. In the half court, they're scoring an equally appalling 89.6 points per 100 half-court possessions without Curry, equivalent to 28th in the NBA. Putting it in more simple terms, the Warriors are finding it extremely difficult to put the ball in the hoop whenever Curry's on the bench or sitting games out.

This new rotation pattern, therefore, was to remedy that problem — prevalent during the end of first and third quarters and during the first five minutes of second and fourth quarters. It allowed Curry to have his rest in the middle of quarters and have him start second and fourth quarters against the Nuggets' bench unit that was without Nikola Jokić.

This is where the Nuggets' major weakness comes in: without Jokić on the floor, the Nuggets' offense has been even worse (97.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time) than the Warriors' without Curry; that includes their half-court offense (81.0 points per 100 half-court possessions). It remains to be seen whether this sub pattern will remain the norm moving forward or if it's a one off. If it's the latter, then the intention was clear: go for the Nuggets' jugular by having Curry face the Nuggets bench.

To say the least, Kerr's adjustment worked. The Nuggets without Jokić were outscored by the Warriors to the tune of 19 points. Not only could they not score — they couldn't stop the Warriors from scoring, most of which were born out of the advantages Curry was creating. With Curry darting around and the Nuggets' bench mob losing track of his movements:

It gave Curry's teammates the best chance to score themselves:

One of those teammates was Jonathan Kuminga, who was given the starting job in Green's absence. His 19 points were second only to Curry's 24; some of those points were created off of the attention Curry commanded as soon as he crossed half court:

This pattern proved enough for the Warriors to carry a six-point lead at the 2:32 mark of the fourth quarter after a tough Curry jumper over Jamal Murray. However, the Warriors would proceed to score a grand total of zero points the rest of the way, with the Nuggets going on a 10-0 run and the Warriors struggling to generate offense despite Curry being on the floor.

One half of that equation was Jokić, who tallied 38 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists in 40 minutes. The Nuggets were outscored by 19 points in his eight minutes on the bench; the Nuggets outscored the Warriors by 23 points in the other 40 minutes, which spelled the difference. The Warriors had one clear job to do with such an unstoppable force mowing them down: make sure that they were able to put themselves in a position to win during the non-Jokić minutes and score just enough when Jokić comes back on the floor to even things out and win.

Unfortunately, the scoreless final 2.5 minutes of the fourth did them in. To the Nuggets' credit, some huge defensive plays were made — in particular, Murray's strip to deny Kuminga an open dunk off of Curry's penetration. Kuminga made the correct decision, made himself available with a dunk along the baseline, and was primed to get an easy bucket. But Murray had other plans:

Jokić himself also made a huge defensive play by stopping a Kuminga drive, one that was straight-line, predictable, and — to be fair to Kuminga — born out of necessity due to Curry being taken away from the half-court offense (although an argument could be made that Kuminga had a window to make a pass to Kyle Anderson, who was cutting off of getting top-side position on Murray after a switch):

But the overarching theme of Curry being the only one who can create shots for himself and others on the roster reared its ugly head once again. To be fair, Curry did miss his fair share of shots down the stretch — but this is where having someone else who can take the scoring reins and relieve Curry of that burden would be such a luxurious thing to have if you're the Warriors. I would even say that at this rate, it's becoming a dire necessity if the Warriors want to be included in the inner circle of Western Conference contenders.

Otherwise, Curry will see many possessions like the one below, where the Nuggets commit multiple defenders toward him and are fine with letting Gary Payton II shoot an open three, despite previously making one:

If Curry is denied a touch of the ball, it then falls to the likes of Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins to create offense. Both of their limitations, however, place definite ceilings on their ability to be a serviceable second creator. Wiggins' main offensive weakness — a handle that is unreliable and prone to mistakes — reared its ugly head down the stretch:

There are several avenues through which the Warriors can address this problem, the most obvious being a trade. The likelihood of a trade happening at this point, however, is low — teams typically don't make them at this point of the season, and being an organization more reticent to pull trade triggers than others, I doubt the Warriors will change how they approach things any time soon.

The other avenue: simply play better, which entails closing better, executing better, making better decisions, and cutting down on self-inflicted mistakes such as unforced turnovers. Cleaning up the simple things and revisiting the basics (i.e., making layups and free throws) will go a long way toward fixing some of what is ailing the Warriors during this five-game losing streak. That's the unsexy answer, and one most fans probably wouldn't want to hear — but it doesn't make it any less true.