What seed should the Warriors aim for?
Yesterday at 07:10 PM
A look at the team's they're chasing ... and holding off.
The Golden State Warriors kick off the unofficial second half of the season on Friday night, and they're in an intriguing place. They've gained momentum and cohesion following the huge trade for Jimmy Butler III, and while Jonathan Kuminga is still sidelined, they're only a few games away from having a fully healthy team (knock on wood).
There are 27 games left on the schedule for the Dubs. 13 of those 27 games are at home, and 14 of them are against teams that currently have a losing record. Golden State has spent much of the year looking like a team that should be fighting for a spot in the play-in tournament, but the addition of Butler gives them reason to feel like they can aim higher. The clock is ticking, though.
The Warriors are currently 10th in the Western Conference standings, occupying the final of the four play-in spots — you can see how the rest of the standings shake out here.
So what's a realistic goal for the Dubs? Let's take a look at the teams they're battling over the final two months of the season.
No. 11 seed — Phoenix Suns
Games behind the Warriors: 1.5
First, we start with the team directly behind the Dubs. With the No. 12 team in the conference, the San Antonio Spurs, announcing today that Victor Wembanyama is out for the year, we can officially declare this an 11-team race for 10 postseason spots. It would be silly to count out the Suns: they still have Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, after all, and they're 24-17 when Durant plays. They've also been in a chaotic free fall since the trade deadline rumors began swirling, having gone 1-6 since beating the Warriors on January 31. That skid included a pair of losses to the lowly Portland Trail Blazers, even though Durant, Booker, and Beal were all healthy.
The Warriors have to watch their back, but I expect them to stay ahead of the Suns.
No. 9 seed — Sacramento Kings
Games ahead of the Warriors: 0
The Kings and Dubs are knotted in the standings, but Sacramento currently has the tiebreaker. The Warriors will have a chance to leapfrog their NorCal rivals right out of the gates, as they visit Sacramento on Friday night in their first post-All-Star game. With respect to Zach LaVine, the Kings have understandably looked worse since essentially trading De'Aaron Fox or LaVine. They're 3-3 during LaVine's tenure, but two of those three wins were against the 13-42 New Orleans Pelicans, while the third was against a Dallas Mavericks squad still rattled by the Luka Dončić trade. And the three losses all came against sub-.500 teams, including one against NOLA.
It would be a disappointment if the Warriors don't pass the Kings in the standings.
No. 8 seed — Dallas Mavericks
Games ahead of the Warriors: 1.5
The loss to the Mavericks right before the break could come back to haunt the Warriors, though they'll get a chance for some revenge at home on Sunday. Even though Dallas has rattled off some impressive wins lately — they entered the break on a 4-1 run, with wins over the Warriors, Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets, and Miami Heat — things could catch up to them shortly. Anthony Davis is still a ways away from returning, and they're sorely lacking in frontcourt depth.
The Warriors will be disappointed if they don't catch the Mavericks, but you can't rule out a hot streak by Dallas.
No. 7 seed — Minnesota Timberwolves
Games ahead of the Warriors: 2.5
Making it to 7th, and earning the top seed in the play-in tournament, would be a nice consolation prize for the Warriors if they don't make the playoffs outright. It won't be easy though, as the Timberwolves started clicking before the break. One thing working in Golden State's favor: they won the season series against Minnesota, so they have the tiebreaker if the teams finish with identical records.
The goal should be to at least catch the Wolves, and the Warriors will be bummed if they don't, but this is the point where the task is looking harder and harder.
No. 6 seed — LA Clippers
Games ahead of the Warriors: 3.5
Steve Kerr publicly said that the Warriors realistic goal was to finish in the sixth seed. That will require not only a strong finish, but hoping that neither the Timberwolves nor the Clippers catch on fire. LA entered the break on a three-game winning streak, but given that two of those three wins were against the Utah Jazz — and that it followed an incredibly ugly three-game losing streak — it's safe to say that they don't have a ton of momentum or confidence right now. Of course, it's worth remembering that the Warriors could catch the Clippers and still miss the six seed, if Minnesota surpasses LA too.
This spot is the goal for the Warriors, albeit a slightly lofty one. But it's still very realistic and attainable, and it's what they should be aiming for.
No. 5 seed — Los Angeles Lakers
Games ahead of the Warriors: 5
If I wrote this article yesterday, as I had originally intended, I wouldn't have included the Lakers. The list would have stopped after the Clippers. But then the Lakers went and lost last night to the awful Charlotte Hornets, after ending the first half with a double-digit loss to the Jazz. The Dončić trade was straight robbery, but there's certainly a chance that it takes until next year before that truly kicks in ... and also a chance that he and LeBron James get injured or run out of steam as the year goes on. The Warriors probably don't have enough games to catch the Lakers all on their own, but it's not unthinkable that the purple and gold might fall move backwards to catch the Dubs.
This spot is the dream for the Warriors, but it would be a massive win for them. As the standings currently sit, it would give them a first-round matchup against the Rockets instead of the Denver Nuggets.
I like what I've seen from the Butler trade thus far, and love the pairing of Butler and Kuminga. I'll go on the optimistic side, and say that the Dubs end up with the No. 6 seed and avoid the play-in tournament.
