The biggest reason behind NBA's brutal viewership ratings decline

10/30/2024 04:38 PM

There has never been a time where more talent existed in the NBA. Even with past eras featuring all-time greats like Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kobe Bryant, and Larry Bird, the game has never had more superstars existing both on and off the court than it does now. After all, guys like Jordan and Kobe set the foundation for the likes of LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant to become the uber-talented players and businessmen they are today.

The way in which the game is played has changed tenfold through the decades. But the one constant that exists in the NBA is the principles of marketing its stars to ensure an audience and maximum viewership. Even stars like Paolo Banchero, Anthony Edwards, and LaMelo Ball have helped drive the attention of the NBA in the smaller markets of Orlando, Minneapolis, and Charlotte, respectively. No matter what team you look at in the NBA, there is at least one player that can be defined as an All-Star or borderline All-Star talent.

More parity and better competition exists between all 30 teams at the start of the 2024-25 season, which should drive the numbers up pertaining to interest in the league. However, that has not been the case early on, as other factors have overshadowed the greatness that is on display with these athletes on a nightly basis.

Viewership to begin the 2024-25 NBA season has not been what the league expected. Although opening night was a success, with the New York Knicks taking on the Boston Celtics as well as the Minnesota Timberwolves facing the Los Angeles Lakers, the same cannot be said for the rest of the games. The first doubleheader of the season on ESPN last Wednesday declined roughly 42 percent compared to last year, according to Sports Media Watch. Thursday followed a similar trend, as TNT’s viewership declined by over 30 percent.

So, why is the NBA having a problem right now when it comes to their audience when there has never been a better time to be a fan of basketball with all of the talent that exists?

Aside from the 82-game schedule being long and grueling, with less interesting matchups than others on a weekly basis, the constant uncertainty surrounding which stars will be available due to injury concerns is beginning to take a toll on the NBA.

NBA viewership decline tied to injuries

Why should anybody care about the NBA ratings being down after the league just announced a new $76 billion media deal with ESPN, NBC, and Amazon? After all, fans are still packing the arenas, and the media deal is locked in for the next decade-plus, so why does any of this matter?

Well, the answer is simple, and it revolves around the injury problems that the league faces.

The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the most marketable teams in the NBA and a franchise many want to see not only because of Joel Embiid, the league’s MVP during the 2022-23 season, but also because of Paul George’s arrival in free agency. Neither Embiid nor George have played this season due to how the team has managed their respective knee injuries.

Over in the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Clippers found themselves as the team George left in the offseason. Still, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard remain the faces of the Clippers, a team that moved out from the Los Angeles Lakers shadow in downtown LA to their new digs that Steve Ballmer built in Inglewood, California, called the Intuit Dome. This state-of-the-art arena has been nothing short of spectacular to begin the year, yet the Clippers aren’t as interesting of a team as they should be right now because Kawhi Leonard — you guessed it — has yet to play this year.

Kristaps Porzingis, Khris Middleton, and Trey Murphy III are three of countless other players across the NBA who have yet to play this season due to them being on the injury report.

There is nothing the NBA can do about injuries. They happen in every sport, and there is simply no avoiding players twisting their ankles and knees or even stepping the wrong way and ending up needing surgery. The injury itself is not the problem that the NBA has; it’s the way in which teams are managing their players’ injuries.

Last season, the league implemented its new Player Participation Policy, outlining new rules for teams keeping star players sidelined, how they need to report said injuries to the league, a minimum game requirement for players to remain eligible for end-of-season awards and accolades, and other fine details. Overall, these new rules did have an impact on certain players sitting out, as the league was able to crack down on the “load management” sensation that teams began to cling to.

Still, load management exists in the form of “injury management,” the league’s new documentation for avoiding penalties and NBA commissioner Adam Silver giving teams a hard time. This ideology of injury management has worked for many teams regarding them working their star players back at their own pace with no repercussions from the league.

Then there are the Sixers, who were recently fined $100,000 by the NBA not because Embiid is injured and missing games, but because of how the team has presented him as being injured. Essentially, Embiid could play, but the Sixers are being overly cautious and do not want to risk further injury until he is 100 percent ready to play.

The main problem that the NBA is dealing with right now pertaining to injuries is the inconsistencies that exist with fans not knowing who is going to be playing on a nightly basis. In regards to the Sixers, this team is marketed with the faces of Embiid, George, and Tyrese Maxey all week leading up to a game on national television, only for Maxey to be the only one playing. Even the Golden State Warriors, who recently saw Stephen Curry suffer a minor ankle injury, are being marketed on commercials and throughout the week for a national TV game with the two-time MVP being the focus despite the fact that he will not be playing in said game.

In a way, this is false advertising, but the main problem is that fans don’t know what to expect on a nightly basis from their teams and opponents. This is especially true when you look at the Miami Heat and the shenanigans they have pulled in the last couple of seasons regarding players like All-Star Jimmy Butler being listed out last-minute with injuries. After paying some fines for this, the Heat now tend to put every single player on the injury report if they have as much as a bruise on their arm, which leads to more questions about who is and who isn’t playing.

Teams across the NBA are advertised a certain way before the season even begins, and yet that isn’t the team they ultimately are when the games begin. The idea of injury concerns and the decline in viewership and ratings is synonymous with the NBA. With this said, it is also a two-part problem that ultimately circles back to the 82-game schedule and players simply not having a chance to remain healthy because of the rigorous training and strain that is put on their bodies daily.

Is it time to shorten NBA season?

The 82-game regular-season schedule that the NBA plays every year has been in place since the start of the 1967-68 season. Other than the schedule being trimmed due to the NBA lockout in 2011 and the COVID pandemic, which impacted the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, 82 games are being played every year.

Of the over 400 players that exist in the NBA, very few of them can say that they have played 82 games in a season. Some take pride in being available for their team, but the vast majority of players around the league end up sitting multiple games out simply to get extra rest. On top of injury concerns, all of these guys are humans.

We oftentimes forget this when Edwards is hitting his head on the backboard after blocking a shot or when Curry is hitting shot after shot from three-point range. At times, these athletes seem like robots or gods with their display of brilliance. For LeBron James, it’s his now 22 years in the NBA and career longevity that makes us look at them differently other than being regular people.

What these athletes in the NBA are able to do takes a toll on them. The human body can only go through so much on a daily basis, which is why rest and hitting the reset button are necessary. Over the course of 82 games, every NBA player is going to need a break at some point, which is why so many stars end up sitting out games throughout the course of the season. Regardless of what certain studies say and what the league lets on, the more games that are played absolutely increase the likelihood of injury.

For example, the longer you fish, the higher the chance you have of catching a fish. As you work more hours at a job, you will get paid more. The likelihood of getting injured the more games someone plays is the same exact scenario, as these two factors go hand in hand.

Whether or not the NBA would truly consider slimming the regular-season schedule is something Silver has discussed in the past, yet it could become a lot more complicated to do so as a result of the new media rights deal and these networks signing on for a set number of games that were promised.

Prior to the In-Season Tournament, now called the NBA Cup, being introduced for the 2023-24 season, Silver talked at length about how the league is always discussing the schedule and how to maximize fan engagement.

“If we did make modifications in the schedule, we'd always ensure that every team played each other at least once. I think that's critically important,” Silver told Yahoo Sports in 2022. “Everybody wants to see, even if it's a cross-country trip, that wherever that player is on that team that plays in the other conference, they should have the opportunity to see that player at least once… The fact that teams are focused on load management and players are resting, that sends a message in its own right. And I'm saying we're paying attention to that, and want to make sure that the number of games we're playing isn't just a result of the fact that that's what we've been doing for 50 years.”

A playoff-like atmosphere. This is the goal the NBA has for every single arena for every single game that is played. Fans want to be engaged and locked in for every game that occurs. More importantly, they want to see the best of the best out there competing like every single game matters.

That is the problem right now — every game matters to an extent, but not every team and player cares about all 82 games, especially near the end of the year against teams set to miss the playoffs.

Load management, injury management, and rest days for players landing on the injury report are a direct result of the NBA schedule. Thus, many games feel like exhibitions rather than the playoff-like feel the league wants to display to its grand audience on national television.

The NBA is a star-driven league. When the stars are unhappy or aren’t playing because of injuries, this directly impacts ratings and viewers because there are other sports taking place with the intensity and star power being displayed.

There is nothing wrong with the NBA, contrary to thoughts from some that the emphasis on three-point shooting has ruined the game. From dominant point guards to bruiser-like centers to insane athletes, the NBA houses some of the best athletes in the world. Making money is the name of the game, but at some point, player health and the product over the course of the entire season need to be taken into account.

If ratings and viewership matter the most right now, then perhaps it is time to truly understand why teams may be abusing the rules surrounding injury management and taking their time to get star players back on the court.

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