Arkansas vs. Kentucky prediction, pick, college basketball odds
01/31/2025 06:26 PM
Jon Calipari returns to Kentucky for the first time as Arkansas heads to Lexington. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Arkansas-Kentucky prediction and pick.
It’s no question that this season has rolled downhill for Jon Calipari and the Razorbacks. Arkansas started the season ranked 16th but are just 1-4 against ranked teams and 12-8 overall. Arkansas is 1-6 in the SEC and will be a bottom-five team in the SEC this season. It is by far the toughest conference this season. Arkansas is 60th in NET rankings which means that they are still a good team, but have not really shown it as of late being just 1-7 against Quad 1 teams. The Razorbacks have wins against Miami (not saying much at all), No. 14 Michigan, and Georgia.
Kentucky is coming off their second-biggest win of the season, with Duke being their best. The Wildcats defeated No. 8 Tennessee on the road on Tuesday night, 78-73. They improved to 15-5 on the season right after losing a stunner to Vanderbilt. Kentucky is 6-1 against top 25 teams with wins against Duke, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Florida, Texas A&M, and Louisville. The Wildcats are 10th in NET with a 7-5 record against Quad 1 teams. They have had a very tough schedule and the second toughest behind Auburn who has played 13 Quad 1 games.
Here are the Arkansas-Kentucky College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Arkansas-Kentucky Odds
Arkansas: +10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +450
Kentucky: -10.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -630
Over: 158.5 (-105)
Under: 158.5 (-115)
How to Watch Arkansas vs. Kentucky
Time: 9:00 ET/6:00 PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Arkansas Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Razorbacks are a poor 5-14-1 against the spread this season. They have been held to high standards and tend to not get the job done. They are big underdogs on the road against a team that is hot. Kentucky has been battle-tested and has had impressive wins. If Arkansas wants to go to Lexington and win then they will need to play the best game of their season. They need their trio of scorers to perform at a high level.
Adou Thiero is the team’s top player. He averages 16.1 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.8 steals, and shoots 57.2% from the floor, 33rd in the nation. He’s one of the top two-way players in the game as a lengthy 6-foot-8 wing player. He has reached double digits in scoring in all but three games this season. His season-high is 26 on two occasions against Illinois and UTSA. Thiero must continue to hit shots at a consistent rate for his team to stay close.
Boogie Fland is second on the team in scoring at 15.1 per game. He adds 5.7 assists, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.5 steals per game. D.J. Wagner is third at 10.2 per game and has been a crucial part of the team’s offense this season. Along with Thiero, Wagner transferred from Kentucky to stay with Calipari and it’s been an up-and-down ride so far. Johnell Davis transferred in from FAU and is at 8.9 points per game. He averaged 18.2 points last season.
Arkansas must rely on its elite defense to shut down Kentucky on the road. They average 7.6 steals, 5.8 blocks, and allow just 68.1 points per game.
Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kentucky boasts one of the best offenses in the game. They threaten with so many different ways to score. They average 87.6 points per game (3rd in the nation) on 48.5% shooting. The Wildcats are also 19th in made threes per contest at 10.2. Kentucky is 15th in rebounding at 40.7 per game and even more impressively, is 4th in defensive rebounds at 29.5. This allows them to have a +11.7 point differential which is 30th in the country. Because they rebound so well and hit their shots, they are very difficult to stop.
Five players average north of 10 points with Otega Oweh leading the way. He averages 15.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 1.7 steals, and shoots 50.0% from the field. Oweh scored 14 in the win over Tennessee and has a season-high of 21 points, which has happened on five different occasions. He has reached double figures in every single game this season.
San Diego State transfer Lamont Butler is second on the team at 13.2 points per game. He adds 2.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.8 steals, and shoots 51.3% from the floor. Butler is proving to be one of the top transfers in the country as he is giving Kentucky a massive boost on both ends. He is a very elite defender who can score effectively, hence his field goal percentage. Butler has missed a few games this season due to injury and is likely to miss this game as well, according to head coach Mark Pope. Andrew Carr may miss the game as well.
Jaxon Robinson and Koby Brea have been huge for the Wildcats this season. Both average 11+ points per game and have shown that they can go out scoring outbursts. Brea scored 18 against Tennessee and has a season-high of 23 against Florida. Robinson scored 17 in the win. over the Vols’ and has a season-high of 27 against Mississippi State.
Final Arkansas-Kentucky Prediction & Pick
This will be a fun game to watch as coach Cal will be back in his old stomping grounds. I expect Kentucky to give it to him and Arkansas, though, as the Wildcats are playing very well — opposite of Arkansas. Kentucky is 11-1 ATS at home and will cover easily, even as a banged-up squad.
Final Arkansas-Kentucky Prediction & Pick: Kentucky -10.5 (-110)
The post Arkansas vs. Kentucky prediction, pick, college basketball odds appeared first on ClutchPoints.
