Houston vs. Colorado prediction, pick, college basketball odds

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Two games removed from their first conference loss, the Houston Cougars (18-4) hit the road to face the Colorado Buffaloes (9-13). It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Houston-Colorado prediction and pick.

With an overtime loss to Texas Tech at home on Feb. 1, Houston watched its 13-game win streak come to a close. The loss was just the Cougars’ fourth of the year, dropping them to No. 5 in the AP poll. They have since rebounded with a 72-63 nod over Oklahoma State.

Colorado entered its first Big 12 matchup at 9-2 but hit a wall in conference play, going 0-11 since Dec. 30. The lengthy losing streak has the Buffaloes winless in the calendar year. They are also 0-3 against ranked teams since shocking UConn at the Maui Invitational.

Here are the Houston-Colorado College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: Houston-Colorado Odds

Houston: -14.5 (-102)

Moneyline: -1450

Colorado: +14.5 (-120)

Moneyline: +810

Over: 127.5 (-105)

Under: 127.5 (-115)

How to Watch Houston vs. Colorado

Time: 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT

TV: ESPN+

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why Houston Will Cover The Spread/Win

College basketball is known to provide uncanny outcomes, but Colorado’s first Big 12 win over Houston after starting conference play at 0-11 would top the list. They have not just lost — they have been blown out in most of their recent games, losing seven of the 11 matchups by double digits. Even worse, the Buffaloes have not covered the spread in eight straight games and only once in their past 12 games.

Houston has done a decent job covering as a double-digit favorite, going 10-7 ATS in such games. The team’s defense continues to be its strong suit. It allows just 56.9 points per game, the best mark in the nation. Much of its defense is predicated on slowing the tempo, as the Cougars average just 66.4 possessions per game, ranking 348th in the country.

Colorado also struggles to maintain possession, averaging 15.1 turnovers per game. Houston ranks atop the Big 12 with 8.2 steals per game with a top-10 opponent turnover rate in the country.

Why Colorado Will Cover The Spread/Win

Looking at the two teams’ records, Colorado and Houston should not be in the same conversation. However, despite their elite overall record, the Cougars are average against the spread, going just 7-6. Conversely, the Buffaloes have gone 7-7 in their 14 games against the spread.

Colorado has looked like the worst team in the Big 12 for the past two months, making it easy to forget they own a win over then-No. 2-ranked UConn. The Buffaloes won that game by earning extra points from deep and at the line despite frequently ceding wide-open three-point looks.

Teams have often hurt Colorado from deep. The Buffaloes allow opponents to hit 7.9 three-pointers per game, 228th in the country. Houston is not one to punish teams from deep, attempting just over 21 threes per outing. The Cougars just failed to cover a similar spread against Oklahoma State, who sits just above Colorado in the conference standings.

Final Houston-Colorado Prediction & Pick

It has been a while, but when Colorado has won, they typically force extra possessions on defense. Their half-court offense is far too unstable to beat teams straight up. The Buffaloes force 12 turnovers per game, ranking fourth in the Big 12. However, Houston ranks fourth in the country with just 9.2 turnovers per game.

Under Kelvin Sampson, Houston struggles when teams can push them offensively and force them into a track meet. Colorado is not that team, averaging just 71.2 points per game and 65.7 in Big 12 play. Teams with those numbers typically pride themselves on defense, but the Buffaloes rank even worse on that end than they do offensively.

While Houston has gone just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games, this Colorado team has been one all other Big 12 teams bounce back against. The only conference foe the Buffaloes covered against was 13-9 UCF. Colorado has otherwise failed to cover the spread in 11 of their past 12 games, while Houston is 10-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

Final Houston-Colorado Prediction & Pick: Houston -14.5 (-102)

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