Louisville vs. Pitt prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball
01/10/2025 05:04 PM
Two darkhorse ACC contenders collide on Saturday when Louisville (11-5) hits the road to face Pitt (12-3). It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Louisville-Pitt prediction and pick.
Louisville endured a rough stretch late in non-conference play but enters this matchup on a five-game win streak. The Cardinals are coming off a 74-64 win over Clemson to move them to 4-1 in the ACC.
Pitt has recognized more success overall but is coming off a demoralizing loss to Duke. While the loss itself was not disappointing, the Panthers only scored 47 points. That ended a five-game win streak that lasted nearly all of December 2024.
Here are the Louisville-Pitt College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Louisville-Pitt Odds
Louisville: +4.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +172
Pitt: -4.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -210
Over: 149.5 (-110)
Under: 149.5 (-110)
How to Watch Louisville vs. Pitt
Time: Noon ET / 9 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN 2
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Why Louisville Will Cover The Spread/Win
Louisville’s 11-5 record may not be as impressive as Pitt’s, but the Cardinals have only lost to teams currently ranked in the top 25. Three of them — Tennessee, Duke and Kentucky — are ranked in the top 10. Against currently unranked opponents, which Pitt is, Louisville is 11-0.
Due to its inconsistency, Louisville is not elite anywhere on paper. However, they tend to go wherever Wisconsin transfer Chucky Hepburn takes them. The senior leads the team in points, rebounds and steals and has been on a tear on the team’s current win streak. He has recorded at least seven assists in all five games as the Cardinals average 79 points per game in the span.
Louisville’s offense revolves around the three-point line. They attempt the 10th-most threes in the country but connect on them at just a 29 percent clip, ranking 314th. They are the definition of living and dying by the three.
Pitt has allowed just 7.1 threes per game on the year. However, that has increased to 8.5 in ACC play, including its most recent game, in which Duke sank 11 from downtown.
Why Pitt Will Cover The Spread/Win
When Louisville lost this season, it experienced extreme offensive dry spells. It shot below 40 percent from the field in four of its five losses, including a horrid 27 percent performance against Tennessee. Pitt does not have as elite defense as Duke or Tennessee, but it ranks 45th in defensive rating on KenPom, higher than two of the teams who beat the Cardinals.
Pitt had nothing to offer against Duke’s defense in their most recent defeat, raising many potential concerns. While failing to score against the best defense in the country is nothing to be ashamed of, the Panthers’ offense also stalled in their two previous losses against Mississippi State and Wisconsin.
However, in its four games before facing Duke, Pitt averaged 93.75 points per game. The points flowed until they ran into Duke’s brick wall. Louisville is nowhere near Duke’s level defensively. It allows its opponents to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 50.5 percent, ranking 176th.
The two teams have nearly identical defensive ratings on KenPom. However, Pitt ranks 22nd in offensive rating, while Louisville lags behind at 42nd.
Final Louisville-Pitt Prediction & Pick
While Louisville entered ACC play with a mere 6-5 record, they have truly found themselves entering the New Year. They have essentially settled into a role as the gatekeepers to the top 25. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS as underdogs, the only loss against Duke.
Pitt, for all its accomplishments, is not at that level. The Panthers were run out of the building by the only two currently ranked teams it faced. They have played just one game in 2024-2025 as a favorite of five or fewer points, an outright loss to Wisconsin.
Final Louisville-Pitt Prediction & Pick: Louisville +4.5 (-102)
The post Louisville vs. Pitt prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball appeared first on ClutchPoints.
