NC State vs. Virginia prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

12/30/2024 04:31 PM

It is an ACC battle as NC State visits Virginia. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an NC State-Virginia prediction and pick.

NC State comes into the game at 8-4 on the year. they opened up the year 5-0 before falling to Purdue, BYU, and Texas. They would win their first ACC game of the year, beating Florida State 84-74. Since then, they have defeated Coppin State and Rider but fell to Kansas by 15. Meanwhile, Virginia is 7-5 on the year. They opened up 3-0 before losing to Tennessee and St. John’s. Both of those were by over 20 points. They would win the next two before losses to Florida and SMU. Since then, Virginia had two wins but did fall to Memphis. They were leading into the second half, but Memphis would use a strong second half to take the lead and hold on to win by two.

These two teams have faced 145 times since 1955. NC State has won 79 of the games, while Virginia has won 66 times. Last year, they faced three times. NC State won the first meeting at home, while Virginia won the second in overtime at home. They would then face in the ACC Tournament, where NC State won in overtime.

Here are the NC State-Virginia College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel 

College Basketball Odds: NC State-Virginia Odds

NC State: +1.5 (+100)

Moneyline: -111

Virginia: -1.5 (-122)

Moneyline: -108

Over: 121.5 (-115)

Under: 121.5 (-105)

How to Watch NC State vs. Virginia

Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT

TV: ESPN2

*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why NC State Will Cover The Spread/Win

NC State is 84th in the nation in KenPom’s efficiency rankings. They sit 94th in offensive efficiency while sitting 89th in defensive efficiency this year. NC State has also been strong on defense. They are 44th in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 68th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Further, they are 24th in opponent three-pointers made per game.

Jayden Taylor has been solid this year for NC State. He is second on the team with 12.4 points per game while adding 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and a team-leading 1.2 steals per game. He is joined by Marcus Hill. Hill is scoring 12.6 points per game while adding 3.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists. The primary assist man has been Michael O’Connell. He leads the team with four assists per game while scoring 6.5 points per game. Finally, Dontrez Styles has been solid in the rotation. He is scoring 9.8 points per game, while also adding 4.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game this year.

In the frontcourt, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield leads the way. Huntley Hatfield is scoring nine points per game while leading the team with 5.2 rebounds per game. He is joined by Ben Middlebrooks. Middlebrooks is scoring 9.8 points per game while adding 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game this year.

Why Virginia Will Cover The Spread/Win

Virginia is ranked 101st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 207th in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Virginia is great on defense. They are ninth in the nation in opponent points per game, while they rarely send opponents to the line. They are fifth in the nation in opponent free throw attempts per game this year. Further, they start games strong, sitting seventh in opponent first-half points this year.

Virginia’s top-scoring threat is Isaac McKneely. He is scoring 12.1 points per game this year while shooting 43.0 percent from the field. He also adds 3.9 rebounds, three assists, and 0.9 steals per game. McKneely is joined in the backcourt by Andrew Rohde. He comes into the game with 2.8 assists per game this year, while also adding 8.3 points and 1.9 rebounds.

In the frontcourt, Elijah Saunders leads the way. He scores 11.3 points per game this year, while also adding 5.3 rebounds. Jacob Cofie joins him and leads the team in rebounding. Cofie has 6.2 rebounds per game this year, while he scored 8.3 points, and adds 1.4 assists, and one block per game. Finally, Blake Buchanan has been solid on the glass as well. He has 5.1 rebounds per game this year, while also adding 5.7 points and 1.7 assists per game.

Final NC State-Virginia Prediction & Pick

This will be a heavily defensive game. Both teams are much stronger on the defensive side of the court. While Virginia gives up fewer points per game, the two teams are similar in opponent-effective field goal percentage. Further, NC State is much stronger on offense. They are 149th in the nation in points per game, while Virginia is 347th in points per game. Expect a low-scoring defensive battle, but NC State gets the win.

Final NC State-Virginia Prediction & Pick: NC State +1.5 (+100)

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