Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction, pick, college basketball odds
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These two teams come into this matchup with the same record overall and in conference play. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Texas A&M-Missouri prediction and pick.
Texas A&M is 17-5 and has won four of its last five games. Its resume is littered with quality wins, such as those against Creighton, Texas Tech, Purdue, Texas, Oklahoma twice, and Ole Miss. They also had a terrible loss against UCF, but losses to Oregon, Alabama, Kentucky, and Texas were not as bad. Zhuric Phelps and Wade Taylor IV will need to be massive against Missouri.
Missouri is 17-5 but lost their last game. They have big wins against Kansas, Vanderbilt, Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. However, they have losses to Memphis, Illinois, Auburn, Texas, and Tennessee. The Tigers have been a surprise team in the SEC, and they will need Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill to have monster games at home to stay in the hunt in the SEC.
Here are the Texas A&M-Missouri College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Texas A&M-Missouri Odds
Texas A&M: +2.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +128
Missouri: -2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -154
Over: 142.5 (-110)
Under: 142.5 (-110)
How to Watch Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Time: 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT
TV: SEC Network
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Aggies’ defense has been excellent this season and is one of the best in the SEC. They allow 66.2 points per game, 39.8% from the field, and 32% from behind the arc. In KenPom, their defensive rating is 92.8, which is six in adjusted defense.
The frontcourt has been balanced but lacks a dominant down-low player besides Solomon Washington. Washington leads the team in rebounding with 5.8 per game and is tied with Pharrel Payne in blocks per game with 1.2.
The Aggies have been a tremendous on-ball defensive team. Four Aggies are averaging at least one steal, with Phelps leading the team with 1.8 per game. The Aggies have the defense that will travel to Columbia and cause issues for Missouri. This is a strength-on-strength matchup because Missouri’s offense is fantastic in its own right.
Missouri’s defense has been solid at best and in the middle of the pack in the SEC. They allow 69.3 points per game, 42.2% from the field, and 34.5% from behind the arc. KenPom ranks this defense at 51st. They have an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 99.1.
Down low, the Tigers have struggled across the frontcourt. Josh Gray is the rebounding leader with 5.4 per game, and Mark Mitchell leads the team in blocks with 0.9 per game. Their perimeter and on-ball defense is much better. Five different Tigers are averaging at least one steal, and Anthony Robinson II leads the team with two per game. The Aggies don’t have much on offense outside their backcourt, but I don’t trust the Tigers even at home.
Why Missouri Will Cover The Spread/Win
Texas A&M’s offense has talent, but they have not been nearly as consistent as their defense. They score 75.4 points per game, have a 42.5% field goal percentage, and a 31.5% three-point shooting percentage. The advanced metrics like this offense are more than the standard stats because they are a top-40 offense. They are ranked 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and have a 117.5 KenPom rating.
This offense only has two consistent scorers in both Phelps and Taylor IV. Taylor IV leads the Aggies in scoring with 15.1 points per game, while Phelps averages 14.8 points. Taylor IV also leads the team in assists at 4.4 per game, but as a team, the Aggies are struggling to move the ball fluently and only average 12.1 assists per game. The Aggies are littered with talent across this roster, but they need to find consistency on offense against the Tigers and get more out of their roster besides their two great guards.
Missouri has emerged as one of the best offenses in a crowded SEC. They score 83.3 points per game, have a 48.2% field goal percentage, and a 38% three-point shooting percentage. KenPom also loves this offense, ranking 12th in adjusted offense with a 122.4 rating.
Three Tigers average over double digits in scoring. Bates leads the team in scoring, averaging 13.9 points per game. Grill is just behind him, averaging 13.1 points per game. This scoring offense is also 19th in the country overall.
The team’s assist leader is Robinson II, who averages 3.4 assists per game. The team then averages 13.8 assists per game. This offense is highly efficient but does not move the ball as much as you would expect. Missouri’s offense is facing a great defense in the Aggies. This is the most pivotal matchup of the game, and I trust the Tigers with the game at home.
Final Texas A&M-Missouri Prediction & Pick
The Tigers win this game at home. Taylor IV and Phelps are the best players, but Missouri gets hot at home, thanks to Bates and Grill. Missouri wins and covers at home.
Final Texas A&M-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Missouri -2.5 (-120)
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