Predicting when Victor Wembanyama could deliver the Spurs' 6th championship

11/18/2024 12:59 PM

History tells us about how long it has taken all-time greats to win championships and why.

I know of the strict rule against any Christmas references before Thanksgiving, and I fully support the rule. I can also wait another two weeks before hearing "Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer" (performed by the immortal Elmo Shropshire) and other holiday classics.

However, when Victor Wembanyama recently had three consecutive games with six or more three-pointers, many Spurs fans (including me) had visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads. During those visions, I tried to figure out what a sugar plum is. According to Wikipedia:

Sugar plums are a type of dragée or other hard candy made into small round or oval shapes.The 'plum' in the name of these confections does not always mean plum in the sense of the fruit, but rather their small size and spherical or oval shape. Traditional sugar plums often contained no fruit, instead being made mostly of pure sugar.

Wow, sugar plums sound dreadful, and I immediately stopped having sugar plum visions. But Victor's three-game stretch made me consider another question: Can we look at the history of great NBA players to determine a reasonable timeline for Victor to lead the Spurs to their sixth championship?

For this exercise, I looked at true NBA greats, players who were at some point considered the best player in the league and who would make most lists of the top dozen or so players in NBA history. Let's go chronologically.

Bill Russell won his first NBA championship in his first year in the league, starting a streak of 11 championships in 13 years. Russell was just 22 years old when he won his first championship, but the odds of any team dominating the present NBA as Russell's Celtics did is virtually zero. The NBA had only eight teams back then, including squads from Rochester, Syracuse and Fort Wayne, Michigan. That means we can't learn much from Russell's experience.

The next player on all the top ten lists is Wilt Chamberlin, who lost to Russell in many of the Celtic championship runs. Wilt finally broke through in 1967 with the 76ers — his eighth season in the league when he was 29 years old. Another great player in that era, Jerry West, did not win a championship until he teamed up with Wilt on the 1971-1972 Lakers, when West was 34 and in his twelfth season.

The next truly great player was Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. After four years at UCLA (and three NCAA championships in his three varsity seasons), Kareem won his first NBA championship with the Bucks in his third NBA season, at age 24. As I have written here earlier, Victor's training regimen and body-type make me hopeful that he can match Kareem's longevity and productivity. We already know that Victor will make more three-pointers. Kareem made only one in his career:

Kareem also played a big role in the next great player's first NBA championship — Magic Johnson. Magic broke the mold by winning a championship as a 20-year old rookie in what might have been his best game ever — 42 points, 15 boards and 7 assists in a clinching Game Six in Philadelphia. Kareem, the MVP that season, missed that game with a badly sprained ankle. He later became the oldest NBA Finals MVP at 38 years old when the Lakers finally vanquished the Celtics in 1985.

Magic's primary rival, Larry Bird, also won his first championship early in his career. Bird won in his second season while 24 years old. Like Magic, Bird was blessed with excellent teammates, primarily Kevin McHale and Robert Parish.

Spurs' fans hope Victor will someday challenge Michael Jordan and LeBron James as the best player in NBA history. Both MJ and Lebron had a long wait for their first crown. MJ joined the league with the Bulls in 1991 after three years in college, but did not win a crown until his seventh year, at 27 years old. Even then, he did not win until fellow NBA top-75 player Scottie Pippin was also on the team.

LeBron joined the league in 2003 straight out of high school and became an immediate star. However, despite several MVP awards with the Cavs, he did not win his first championship until 2012 after he joined with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on the Heat. Even that super team then lost in their first Finals to the Mavs in 2011 before beating a way-too-young OKC team in 2012, barely beating the Spurs in 2013, and then were crushed by the identical Spurs team in the Redemption Finals in 2014 — after which LeBron high-tailed it back to Cleveland.

Speaking of the Spurs, the Great Tim Duncan joined the Spurs in 1997 (after four years at Wake Forest). He won his first crown by teaming with David Robinson in TD's second season at 23 years old. His rivals for best player in the game during his career, Shaq and Kobe, each needed the other great player to win their first championship for the Lakers in 2000. At the time, Shaq was already 28 and in his seventh season, while Kobe was 21 and in his fourth season Of course, each had the other and were on a team coached by Hall of Famer Phil Jackson.

Other than the ageless LeBron, all of these players have retired. Active candidates for top-12 status include Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo (which I will only attempt to spell once) and Nikola Jokic. Curry won his first crown after three years of college in his fifth year in the league when he was 26 years old, Giannis won his first in his seventh season at 26 and Joker won in his ninth season at 28 years old.

What can we learn from this trip down NBA Great Player Memory Lane? First, if a great player wants to win an NBA championship before they are 25 years old, they need to team up with another Hall-of-Fame player. Kareem had Oscar Robertson, Magic with Kareem, the Great Duncan with Robinson, Kobe with Shaq. If the player is not so lucky, he generally has to wait five to seven years (or more!) to win it all, and that generally happens when the player is 26-30 years old.

Because the Spurs don't yet have that second "great" player, their present slow and steady approach to team building seems correct. And they do have several very young players who clearly can be starters on an NBA champion — Devin Vassel, Jeremy Sochan and Stephen Castle. All will be in their prime when Victor hits his. With their store of draft picks, which can be used on either other young players or in trades, the Spurs are well positioned to take advantage of their generational talent and get the team's sixth crown, or more, in the foreseeable future. For our purposes, let's define "foreseeable future" as in several years and while Victor is in his 20s. This gives the team a wide window to win those crowns.