Victor Wembanyama's three-point shooting should eventually balance out

Yesterday at 09:36 PM

Victor Wembanyama is on pace to take the most threes ever for a center, but is that a good thing?

Victor Wembanyama has converted 12 of 21 trifectas in his last two outings, as the team lost to the Utah Jazz and defeated the Sacramento Kings. These games were the first and second time this season he has made half his long-range attempts, and he was only successful from that territory on one other occasion: the win versus the Houston Rockets on Oct. 26, downing 40 percent of tries.

Aside from enjoying the finesse game, he's not going inside as often because he's not strong enough to overpower some defenders. But the team isn't stressing it. Before coach Gregg Popovich stepped away from the Spurs with a medical concern, he said Wembanyama is more of a perimeter player than post operator and that they want him doing everything. Plus, he said, "We can't do it all at once."

Having every weapon in the arsenal is a good thing because those players are harder to scheme out. Compared to a boxer, one who uses the jab, hook, uppercut, and straight hands while attacking head and body is much tougher to stop than the fighter who only comes forward with haymakers. That's why Nikola Jokić is the best player in the world, and why the Spurs' last two games are encouraging.

Additionally, getting stronger will take a long time because overdoing work in the weight room could be dangerous. While his body matures and expectations for the team remain low, there is no better time to experiment with the long ball.

Wembanyama is averaging an eye-popping 7.5 3-point attempts per game this season. The only other center in NBA history to try more nightly was Karl-Anthony Towns (7.9) in 2019-20, per Stathead. Yet, Towns played in 35 games that season, attempting 277 3-pointers. The record for most threes fired by a center belongs to Brook Lopez (512) in 2018-19 in 81 matches.

If Wembanyama keeps up his pace for the rest of the year, he'll cross 600 attempts. Only eight perimeter players did that last season; in 2022-23, nine perimeter players shot so many, including one big man (Julius Randle). But he must consistently follow up on his last two performances for SnipeBanyama to be a real threat or lower the volume to last year's (5.5) or below if he cannot.

Keep in mind that Kevin Durant, the 6'11 marksman that Wemby has emulated, has a career-high of 6.7 hoisted trifectas in 2015-16.

At this stage, when most teams play Wembanyama, they'd prefer more trays. He shoots 31.3 percent from deep and made 32.5 percent as a rookie, but that's not the only reason. Unless the player guarding is clueless by fouling, pressure isn't put on the defense because there's no need to double someone so tall beyond the arc, and taking jumpers ensures he keeps the opponents' best players on the floor since he won't generate penalties against them.

In the Spurs' last two games, Wemby totaled four free throw attempts, making them all. Even with strength issues, that is too low for a giant who can get open by moving without the ball. As a rookie whose muscles weren't as defined, he averaged 5.2 freebies per game. This season it has dropped to 3.5 attempts, which is unacceptable. A noticeable change is that three-pointers have increased on his shot diet from 33.2 to 47.4 percent.

Here's the reality: since he's taking so many threes, he must become a premier sharpshooter or his talents will be wasted. His inside touch is too lethal to be bailing out defenses with excessive outside misses.

Former NBA coach Bill Fitch used to complain while instructing the Rockets that Ralph Sampson wasn't playing like a true big man, taking a few jumpers per game in the mid-1980's. Sampson was also skinny and could be pushed around by stronger players. But he could use his smarts to make up for that deficiency and be on his best day just as dominant as Hakeem Olajuwon.

In Game 3 of the '86 Finals, Sampson pieced up the Celtics, who had the greatest front court of all time, because he was too much to deal with at 7'4 at close range.

The current stage of Wembanyama is a lot like pre-injury Sampson: someone with the potential for all-time greatness. Experimenting with the three-point shot won't stop Wemby from getting there; but being lousy at it can. Eventually, he will have to find the right balance to his shot distribution.