Grizzlies vs. Raptors prediction, odds, pick, spread – 2/5/2025

02/05/2025 01:00 AM

The NBA season continues, and we have a tilt between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series with a Grizzlies-Raptors prediction and pick.

The Memphis Grizzlies enter Wednesday's matchup against the Toronto Raptors with a potent offense averaging 123.4 PPG (1st in scoring splits) and elite shooting efficiency (48.6% FG, 5th). Memphis' rebounding dominance (47.7 RPG) could overwhelm Toronto's 24th-ranked defensive rebounding unit. The Raptors, winners of 8 of their last 10, will rely on Scottie Barnes' all-around production (19.2 PPG, 6.5 APG) and Immanuel Quickley's gradual reintegration after injury. While the Grizzlies won their last meeting 128-109 behind JJJ's 31 points, Toronto's 5-5 ATS record in recent head-to-head games suggests potential competitiveness.

Here are the Grizzlies-Raptors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Odds: Grizzlies-Raptors Odds

Memphis Grizzlies: -7.5 (-114)

Moneyline: -310

Toronto Raptors: +7.5 (-106)

Moneyline: +250

Over: 240.5 (-110)

Under: 240.5 (-110)

How To Watch Grizzlies vs. Raptors

Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT

TV: Bally Sports Midwest, NBA League Pass

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*

Why the Grizzlies Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Memphis Grizzlies are poised to extend their dominance against the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, leveraging their offensive firepower and Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities. Memphis ranks first in scoring (123.4 PPG) and fifth in FG% (48.6%), anchored by Jaren Jackson Jr.'s ascendance as a two-way force. Fresh off a 37-point performance against Milwaukee and 31 points vs. San Antonio, Jackson's versatility—paired with Ja Morant's return (25 points, 11 assists Monday)—creates matchup nightmares for a Raptors defense allowing the NBA's fourth-most points in the paint (44.4) over their last 10 games. Toronto's recent defensive surge (No. 1 defensive rating since Jan. 1) faces its stiffest test yet against a Memphis squad averaging 116.8 PPG in three post-Morant-return wins.

Memphis' rebounding edge (47.7 RPG, 1st) will exploit Toronto's 24th-ranked defensive rebounding, particularly with Jakob Poeltl (14.6 PPG, 10.3 RPG) lacking reliable backup support. The Grizzlies' depth—highlighted by Santi Aldama (23 points vs. Milwaukee) and GG Jackson (season-high 27 vs. San Antonio)—contrasts sharply with Toronto's injury-riddled rotation, including Immanuel Quickley's gradual return and Bruce Brown's questionable status. While Scottie Barnes (20.3 PPG, 6.5 APG) and RJ Barrett (21.7 PPG) will challenge Memphis' perimeter defense, the Raptors' inconsistent three-point shooting (35.1%) plays into the Grizzlies' hands, as they rank fifth in opponent FG% (45%). Expect Memphis' transition game and interior scoring (66 paint points vs. Milwaukee) to overwhelm a Toronto squad still rebuilding defensive chemistry.

Why the Raptors Could Cover the Spread/Win

The Toronto Raptors have quietly become the NBA's most disruptive defensive force, setting the stage for an upset over the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. Since January 1, Toronto boasts the league's best defensive rating (105.7) and allows the fewest points per game (105.0), a dramatic leap from their 25th-ranked defense earlier this season. This resurgence directly counters Memphis' high-octane offense (123.4 PPG), particularly through limiting transition opportunities (12.6 fast-break points allowed, second-best) and paint penetration (44.4 points allowed inside, third-best). Scottie Barnes' evolution as a two-way anchor (20.3 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.5 SPG) and RJ Barrett's career-best playmaking (21.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.7 APG) create matchup problems for a Grizzlies defense allowing 115.7 PPG. Memphis' reliance on Ja Morant's explosiveness (25 PPG since return) falters against Toronto's revamped perimeter containment, which held James Harden to 11 points in their Clippers win.

Toronto's depth and cohesion outweigh Memphis' injury-plagued rotation. The Raptors' league-leading 30.6 assists per game since January exploits the Grizzlies' 23rd-ranked opponent assist rate, while Immanuel Quickley's reintegration (16.2 PPG, 6.1 APG in limited action) provides secondary creation against Memphis' depleted backcourt. With Desmond Bane (ankle) sidelined and Marcus Smart (finger) still out, Memphis lacks perimeter stoppers to contain Toronto's four 15+ PPG scorers. The Raptors' 8-2 surge also reflects improved clutch execution, winning five games by single digits during this stretch – a stark contrast to Memphis' 3-4 record in one-possession games. As Toronto's defensive identity converges with their ball-movement principles, Wednesday's matchup becomes a trap game for a Grizzlies team overlooking the East's rising disruptors.

Final Grizzlies-Raptors Prediction & Pick

The Grizzlies-Raptors matchup promises to be a clash of contrasting styles and recent trajectories. Memphis enters as the favorite, boasting the league’s top-scoring offense and Ja Morant’s electrifying return. However, Toronto’s defensive resurgence since January 1st cannot be overlooked, as they’ve become the NBA’s stingiest unit. The game will likely hinge on whether the Raptors can slow Memphis’ transition game and limit paint penetration. Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett will be key for Toronto, potentially exploiting the Grizzlies’ injury-depleted perimeter defense. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s two-way impact could be the X-factor, especially if he continues his recent scoring tear. While Memphis has more firepower, Toronto’s improved clutch performance and ball movement give them upset potential. Ultimately, the Grizzlies’ superior depth should propel them to an ATS victory on the road and derail the Raptors hype train.

Final Grizzlies-Raptors Prediction & Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (-114), Over 240.5 (-110)

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