Raptors vs. Thunder prediction, odds, pick, spread – 2/7/2025
Today at 07:39 PM
The NBA season continues, and we have a tilt between the Toronto Raptors and the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series with a Raptors-Thunder prediction and pick.
The Oklahoma City Thunder (40-9), owners of the NBA's best record, host the struggling Toronto Raptors (16-35) on Friday in a matchup highlighting contrasting trajectories. OKC's league-leading defense (104.5 PPG allowed) and fifth-ranked offense (117.2 PPG) face a Raptors squad allowing 116.4 PPG (24th) while missing three starters, including RJ Barrett (concussion) and Jakob Poeltl (hip). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.8 PPG, 2.0 SPG) anchors a Thunder attack that's surged to 121.1 PPG over their last 10 games, while Toronto's depleted rotation – coming off a 31-point loss to Memphis – must contain Jalen Williams (21.0 PPG) and newly returned center Chet Holmgren. OKC's rebounding edge (44.3 vs. Toronto's 43.9 RPG) and home dominance (22-3 at Paycom Center) make them heavy favorites against a Raptors team 1-9 in their last 10 road games.
Here are the Raptors-Thunder NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Raptors-Thunder Odds
Toronto Raptors: +18.5 (-108)
Moneyline: +1300
Oklahoma City Thunder: -18.5 (-112)
Moneyline: -3000
Over: 228.5 (-110)
Under: 228.5 (-110)
How To Watch Raptors vs. Thunder
Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Southwest, NBA League Pass
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Raptors Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Toronto Raptors (16-35) face a monumental challenge against the league-leading Oklahoma City Thunder (40-9) on Friday, but a closer look reveals pathways to an upset. Despite their record, Toronto has quietly surged defensively, ranking second in defensive rating (105.7) since Jan. 13, anchored by Scottie Barnes' versatile playmaking and RJ Barrett's improved two-way effort36. The Thunder's reliance on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32.8 PPG) creates vulnerability: OKC's offense plummets by 16.5 points per 100 possessions when he sits, and Toronto's length-driven schemes could force secondary creators like Jalen Williams (21.0 PPG) into inefficient isolation scenarios. Additionally, the Raptors' recent acquisition of P.J. Tucker bolsters their frontcourt physicality, critical against a Thunder team lacking traditional power forwards. With Jakob Poeltl (hip) and Barrett (concussion) nearing returns, Toronto's rotation gains depth to exploit OKC's 24th-ranked rebounding defense.
The Thunder's historic dominance (32-1 in blowout wins) masks cracks Toronto can exploit. OKC's bench ranks 21st in scoring, and their reliance on perimeter shooting (13.8 3PM/G) faces a Raptors squad limiting opponents to 13.7 3PM/G. Toronto's Gradey Dick (15.7 PPG, 42.9% 3PT) provides critical floor-spacing against OKC's switch-heavy defense, while Immanuel Quickley's playmaking (15.5 PPG, 5.7 APG) pressures a Thunder backcourt missing defensive anchor Cason Wallace (shoulder). Fatigue may also factor: OKC is on a 7-3 run with heavy minutes for Gilgeous-Alexander, while Toronto enters rested after a 115-108 win over the Clippers36. If the Raptors leverage their defensive identity, capitalize on transition mismatches, and mitigate turnovers (15.2/G vs. OKC's league-leading 11.4 forced), they'll disrupt the Thunder's rhythm and spring a stunning road upset.
Why the Thunder Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Oklahoma City Thunder (40-9) enter Friday's matchup against the Toronto Raptors (16-35) as heavy favorites, boasting the NBA's best record and a historic +12.74 point differential – the highest ever through 49 games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP-caliber dominance (32.8 PPG, 50 points in Wednesday's win) anchors a Thunder offense averaging 121.1 PPG over their last 10 games, while their league-best defense (104.5 PPG allowed) thrives on forcing turnovers (11.4 per game) and limiting second-chance opportunities34. With Isaiah Hartenstein's interior presence (12.5 RPG) complementing Chet Holmgren's rim protection, OKC's defense ranks first in paint points allowed (44.4 PPG) during their current 8-2 stretch – a critical edge against Toronto's 23rd-ranked interior defense.
Toronto's recent defensive resurgence (105.7 rating over last 10 games) faces its toughest test against OKC's multifaceted attack. The Raptors allow 116.4 PPG season-long – 24th in the NBA – and remain undermanned with RJ Barrett (concussion) and Jakob Poeltl (hip) sidelined. While Scottie Barnes' return provides defensive versatility, OKC's league-leading transition offense (19.4 fast-break PPG) exploits Toronto's 26th-ranked transition defense. The Thunder's bench depth (21st in scoring) outperforms Toronto's injury-ravaged rotation, which lacks playmaking without Immanuel Quickley (elbow) and struggles from deep (29th in 3PM). With home-court dominance (22-3 at Paycom Center) and Toronto's 1-9 road record over their last 10 away games, OKC's blend of offensive firepower and defensive discipline positions them to extend their NBA-best momentum.
Final Raptors-Thunder Prediction & Pick
The Thunder’s dominance at home (22-3) and the Raptors’ road struggles (1-9 in last 10) set the stage for a lopsided affair. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-caliber play (32.8 PPG) should overwhelm Toronto’s depleted backcourt, while OKC’s league-best defense will likely stifle the Raptors’ 28th-ranked offense. Expect Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren to exploit mismatches against Toronto’s injury-riddled frontcourt. While Scottie Barnes may have a strong individual performance, it won’t be enough to overcome the Thunder’s balanced attack and suffocating defense. The Thunder’s transition game will prove too much for Toronto’s bottom-tier transition defense as they come away with the dominant victory covering the spread on their home court Friday night.
Final Raptors-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -18.5 (-112), Over 228.5 (-110)
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