Texas Tech vs. Florida prediction, odds, pick for Men's March Madness 2025
03/28/2025 09:52 AM
A ticket to the Final Four is on the line as Texas Tech faces Florida. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Texas Tech-Florida prediction and pick.
Texas Tech is 28-8 on the year and would have a three-seed in the NCAA tournament. Texas Tech would open its tournament with UNC Wilmington, coming away with an 82-72 victory. They would then face Drake in the second round, and come away with a 77-64 victory. Last time out, Texas Tech faced Arkansas. Arkansas would lead by seven at the end of the first half and would extend the lead to double digits in the second half. Still, Texas Tech made the comeback to force overtime. In overtime, Texas Tech took the 85-83 victory.
Meanwhile, Florida is 33-4 on the year and would finish the regular season second in the SEC. After winning the SEC tournament, they would get a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the first round, Florida dominated Norfolk State before facing UConn in the second round. It would be a back-and-forth game, but Florida would hold on to win the game 77-75. Last time out, Florida faced Maryland. It was a tight first half, with Florida holding just a two-point lead at the end of the first half. Florida would dominate the second half though, and would go on to win the game 87-71.
Here are the Texas Tech-Florida College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Texas Tech-Florida Odds
Texas Tech: +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +210
Florida: -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -260
Over: 155.5 (-115)
Under: 155.5 (-105)
How to Watch Texas Tech vs. Florida
Time: 6:09 PM ET/ 3:09 PM PT
TV: TBS/truTV
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Why Texas Tech Will Cover The Spread/Win
Texas Tech is ranked ninth in KenPom’s current rankings. They are fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency while sitting 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Texas Tech has been solid on offense this year. They are 23rd in the nation in points per game while sitting 33rd in shooting efficiency this year. Further, they have shot well from three, sitting 42nd in the nation in three-point percentage this year. Finally, they have moved the ball well, sitting fifth in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio.
JT Toppin leads the way for Texas Tech this year. He comes in with 18.2 points per game while adding 9.3 rebounds per game, both marks leading the team. He also adds 1.2 assists, and 1.5 blocks per game this year. Toppin is joined in the front court by Darrion Williams. Williams comes into the game with 14.8 points per game while adding 5.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.2 steals per game this year.
Meanwhile, Chance McMillian has been solid in the backcourt. He comes in with 14.2 points per game while adding 4.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists. Finally, Elijah Hawkins leads the team in assists and steals, coming in with 6.4 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He also had 9.3 points and 3.5 rebounds per game this year.
Why Florida Will Cover The Spread/Win
Florida is ranked second in KenPom’s current rankings. They are second in adjusted offensive efficiency this year while sitting ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Florida has also been dominant on offense this year. They are third in the nation in points per game this year while sitting 42nd in the nation in shooting efficiency this year. They have also shot well from three this year. Florida is 73rd in the nation in three-point percentage while sitting fourth in the nation in made three-point attempts per game.
Walter Clayton Jr. leads the way for Florida. He is scoring 17.7 points per game while adding 4.2 assists per game this year. He also has 3.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. He is joined by Alijah Martin. Martin is scoring 14.6 points per game while adding 4.5 rebounds with 2.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game this year. Finally, Will Richard has 13.5 points per game, while adding 4.5 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.6 steals per game.
In the frontcourt, Alex Condon leads the way. He comes in with 7.7 rebounds per game while adding 10.9 points, 2.3 assists, and 1.4 blocks per game this year.
Final Texas Tech-Florida Prediction & Pick
This should be a tight game between quality teams. Both teams have shot well from three this well. Texas Tech is 20th in the nation in three-point attempts made per game while Florida is 24th. Still, Texas Tech is 81st against the three this year while Florida is fifth. Further, Florida is ninth in opponent shooting efficiency while Texas Tech is 45th. Finally, both teams are almost identical in defensive rebounding percentage this year, but Florida is much better on the offensive glass. Texas Tech is 56th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage this year while Florida is fourth. With a slightly better defense and better rebounding game, take Florida in this one.
Final Texas Tech-Florida Prediction & Pick: Florida -6.5 (-110)
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